Consistent with this rationality-based approach, van Evera (1998) argues that conflict is more likely to arise when parties view conquest to be easy or low cost. Such formulations are directly compatible with traditional economic and game-theoretic analyses of behavior. In contrast, Levy (1983) highlights how misperceptions-about an adversary’s capabilities, adversary’s intentions, or third-party interests-can essentially serve as the root cause of conflict. Academics such as Bueno De Mesquita (1985) and Fearon (1995) have put forth ideas that treat the decision to engage in conflict as a rational choice. Levy (1998) provides an extensive overview of the literature, assessing multiple explanations including balance of power theories, economic interdependence and war, domestic coalition theories, and decision-making under risk and uncertainty. Numerous scholars within the field of international relations have broadly examined the causes of conflict. Alternatively (again, depending upon the true state of the world), we could possibly have beliefs converge to a point where neither adversary wants to initiate conflict. When this happens, it is as if conflict has suddenly arisen without any apparent cause or impetus. Depending upon the true state of the world, we can ultimately have either of the two adversaries initiating an attack (either with or without regret) after an arbitrarily long period of tranquility. Thus, over time, beliefs about the true state of the world converge. Choosing to not stage an attack in a given period reveals information to the player’s rival. Conflict ensues if either player chooses to initiate an attack. During each period, each adversary must decide to either stage an attack or not. This occurs as a result of a convergence of beliefs about the true state of the world by the two players. A game-theoretic model of repeated interaction between two potential adversaries is analyzed to illustrate how conflict could possibly arise from rational decision-makers endogenously processing information, without any exogenous changes to the fundamentals of the environment.
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